Who should the Chiefs pick with the #5 pick in the 2010 Draft?
It's that time of year again. That's right, it's my favorite time of year. The season is officially over, the Super Bowl has been played and decided and there is no more football for another solid 6 months. While this leaves me very sad, I am picked up by the fact that there are so many great part of the offseason I love. And let's face it, it is the plight of the fan to be eternally optimistic in the offseason. The Chiefs have already made some great additions in OC Charlie Weis and DC Romeo Crennel (see previous post). Next comes free agency, and my all-time favorite football related event the draft!!!!
Why do I love the draft so much? Well I am glad you asked. First, there is the aforementioned eternal optimism associated with the draft, especially a top 5 pick. This means you can truly grab an elite player that can come in and play (maybe even start) right away and make an impact. Not only that, anyone who knows me knows I love to hypothesize, predict, and talk about things in way more depth than they need to be talked about in. Which is what the draft is all about. I like to think of myself as an amateur scout at times and be able to see talented players, and those that are overrated. I have my moments (all signs point to me being right about Matt Stafford), and my not-so-much moments (I was dead wrong about Matt Ryan), but at the very least, I know what I am talking about.
Now, the question is raised of who should the Chiefs draft this coming year? With the switch in defense and offense and the general state of the franchise, there are holes everywhere on this team with the biggest holes being at offensive line, outside linebacker, wide receiver and safety. The Chiefs have so many holes it would seem that taking the best player available approach would be a necessity and everything else can be worked out later. I have always been a fan of the BPA approach, especially over reaching for a need (Tyson Jackson last year). However, I see the flip side that if you have a need, there is a player there, you know he will be successful and what you need, then just pick him up. If Tyson Jackson ends up being the next Richard Seymour or Ty Warren then that theory is only proved true. If not, maybe it will still be a solid pick, maybe not, remains to be seen.
I have detailed a few of the picks most mock drafts have us picking. The Chiefs need to get one of these guys so he can have an immediate impact on this team. I will put them in order of who I would like to see, which has no relevance to where I think they are on the Chiefs big board.
Berry gets my vote for most talented player and biggest impact player in the draft. It would only be a dream come true if Berry was available and selected by the Chiefs with this pick. It was in the 2008 season in which I realized the importance of having a top-level elite safety (which Berry surely will be). If you looked at the 4 teams in the conference championships that year each one had an elite safety. The AFC Championship game consisted of Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, the Ravens had Ed Reed (who everyone is comparing Berry to) and the Steelers had Troy Polamalu. The NFC Championship game consisted of the Arizona Cardinals vs. the Philadelphia Eagles, the Cards had Adrian Wilson and the Eagles had Brian Dawkins. All four safeties went to the pro bowl that year and each one was the leader of their defense.
This day and age, with the pass heavy NFL, the most important position of the defense is not what is used to be. It used to be the middle linebacker, but with more passing, faster tight ends, and quicker running backs using zone blocking schemes, the middle linebacker has been devalued and the Safety has taken a bigger role. A safety who can patrol the middle of the field, be a ball hawk, and help in run support is invaluable at this time in the NFL. Ask the Ravens who they think is more valuable on the field Ray Lewis or Ed Reed. I bet you will be surprised the answers. Berry has great ball recognitions skills, is rarely ever out of position, has a high football IQ and can help in run support. He is fundamentally sound and is a student of the game. Oh yeah, and he has the athletic ability to make the outstanding play. Berry is a once-in-a-while safety and if he is available the Chiefs NEED to pick him. This would be the happiest I have been with a pick in a long time if they get him.
If you would have asked me at any point during the season if the Chiefs should pick up a left tackle with the top 5 pick I would have said you were stupid, crazy, or both. However, after watching out the season and evaluating the situation, this idea makes more and more sense to me as I think about. I actually get more and more excited about it the more I think about.
I would have said that you were stupid or crazy because the Chiefs already have their left tackle of the future in Branden Albert. However, after watching the rest of the season I am not as sold on Albert as I once was. Albert seemed to regress a little this year. Perhaps it was the weight he lost, perhaps it was the change in scheme, I am not sure, but he didn't show as much promise as he did in his rookie campaign. Now, the last quarter of the season he did start to play alot better, but can you invest the $63M future of the franchise (Matt Cassel) and not be ensured of his protection? No you can't, this has to be a major priority. Also, with the emergence of Jamaal Charles, this will only go to help him out to become the elite back he has the potential to be.
Okung is noted for his great pass blocking skills. He has great footwork and plays "behind his pads" well to make sure he has the proper leverage to turn people back. Many people out there compare him to Joe Thomas, which is quite the comparison. If Okung is as good as Thomas the Chiefs will be set at tackle for the next ten years. If that isn't enough to get me excited (which it is) here is what really gets me excited. If the Chiefs draft Okung what implications does that have? Well that would mean Albert would move to guard, and you could move Waters to center which everyone has said he is more natural at anyway. This would turn the Chiefs into one of the most formidable lines in the league. Okung could bolster the tackle spot, Albert would move from average tackle to pro-bowl caliber guard, and Waters would immediately upgrade the center position and it would probably add a couple years onto Waters' career while we are at it. This would have shades of the early 2000's offensive line all over again, and that gets me really excited.
The idea of this pick got me more excited the more I saw of McClain in the SEC Championship and the National Championship. McClain is a great inside linebacker (geared toward the 3-4 scheme) with great size, athleticism, and tremendous football IQ and intangibles. McClain is a tackling machine but is also more than adequate in coverage. He is always in the right position and has phenomenal instincts for his position.
The knocks against McClain are that what you see is what you get. Meaning, he doesn't have a huge upside and can only get so much better. However, he is already pretty darn good. He is going to be someone in the London Fletcher/Takeo Spikes mold who will be a leader on defense, a tackling machine, produce consistently for years, but isn't going to put up the huge numbers (especially in the sack department). I am OK with that though, having the level of consistency and leadership he could provide would do wonders for this defense. This also fits into the mold of what Pioli likes to do. McClain sounds like a player born to play for Pioli and if he wants him, it won't matter who else is there, Pioli will take him.
Now, as much as I would like to have McClain, only if it was in a trade down scenario. The Chiefs can get by for another year with the linebackers they have w/o wasting a top 5 pick on one this year. Especially if there are good offensive linemen or safeties available. You could even make an argument that it would be more beneficial to draft a wide receiver like Dez Bryant here instead of McClain. However, if the Chiefs could trade back into the 8-12 range, I would love this pick there.
I haven't heard as much about Davis as I have about Okung, but what I have heard leaves me on the fence about him. What I have heard is that he is not as polished at this point as Okung, and will not be as good right away. However, I have also heard that his upside is much higher and if he develops to his full potential then he will be a hall of fame type talent. This is no doubt due to his monstrous size, at 6'6' 325. Those are quite the measureables and it definitely means there is a lot there for him to develop.
I have never been one to draft in the NFL based on potential. There are too many unknowns involved in using a top 5 pick on someone based on potential. If he doesn't develop then you are tied up financially and it sets the franchise back at least 2 years. It has never really been Pioli's style to draft on potential and upside and I don't think he will start now. Davis is too much of a risk to bet the franchise and Matt Cassel on him developing, especially if Okung is still out there and you know what you will be getting right away with him. The ceiling may not be as high, but if they both turn into pro-bowlers then you don't really lose with Okung either. I would be disappointed if the Chiefs select Davis here.
Now, one of the most exciting parts about the Chiefs' 2010 draft is the two second round picks the Chiefs have. Pioli (and myself) place great value in the second round picks and there is a lot of value that can be gained and some great players that are around in the second round. I am going to throw out a few names I would love to see the Chiefs grab if they could in the second round.
First off there is the obvious, Cody is HUGE. The man is listed at 365 but I have heard he usually plays in the 380 range. This is good and bad. Good because he is huge and hard for anybody to handle, bad because it makes what shape he is in a liability and you question whether he can last a full NFL season.
With the Chiefs move to the 3-4 the success was small last year due to their lack of one HUGE area, nose tackle. All the success of the 3-4 is predicated on the nose tackle and the Chiefs do not have a good one at this point. You need a HUGE person in there to clog up the middle, take a couple blockers and free up the linebackers. The Chiefs would have been well served to draft BJ Raji to fill this need last year, instead the Packers got him and he performed very well. But that's an aside. If Cody is available here it would be perfect, he is a perfect fit for the 3-4 nose tackle position and would upgrade the defense immediately.
Cody is a first round talent that will most likely slip to the second based on weight concerns. However, I think in the second round he will be a bargain and a great pick and I would be extremely excited if we got him in the second.
Mays' stocked has slipped the last couple of months. He was once thought of as a top ten pick and right there with Eric Berry, however that is no longer the case. This year Mays was exposed a little. He is not that great in coverage, his recognition skills are slow, and his on ball defense is only OK. However, he is a killer in run support. He seems to be cut more in the Roy Williams mode as a safety than the Ed Reed mold. Which I don't want with pick #5, but if the Chiefs could get him in the second round, you're looking at great value here and he would upgrade the position instantly.
There are a lot of directions this pick could go if Cody is not around for the second pick, and I don't know if Pioli would go for someone like Mays whose stock has fallen so sharply over the past year. However, he is a great athlete and a great talent and if you can get someone like that in the second round, it makes for a good pick in my book.
Now here are some short blurbs on who the Chiefs could look at with the second Round 2 pick
The Chiefs talked to Gilyard at the senior bowl. It appears his stock has dropped recently, but his skill set is well known. A great return man and someone who can also get out and run routes and catch the ball as well.
With the extra emphasis the Chiefs have placed recently on the return game and thier attempt to find a return to finally replace Dante Hall Gilyard comes into play in a big way with this pick. Frankly, I think this would be a great value pick here and would be getting a talented player who could help in more than one area and Pioli loves that type of versatility.
Arenas is another pick that would bolster the return game and help out in another area as well. Arenas made a name for himself returning punts for the National Champions, however, he is no slouch in coverage either.
Arenas would immediately upgrade the return game and give us on the most exciting players in the draft in the return game. Also, Arenas would provide a solid option at nickleback. Donald Washington didn't seem to develop as much as they would have liked last year and this could aide in that development if Arenas can fill that need. I think Arenas has the talent to make his way into the starting lineup eventually too. He is another prime example of the versatility that Pioli loves.
Now that I have outlined who I think the Chiefs are and should look at, here are a couple different dream scenarios I would have.
Dream Scenario 1 (best overall): Round 1: Russell Okung OT; Round 2: Pick 1 - Terrance Cody NT, Pick 2 - Mardy Gilyard WR
Dream Scenario 2 (best player): Round 1: Eric Berry S; Round 2: Pick 1 - Terrance Cody NT; Pick 2 - Javier Arenas CB
All this draft talk has got me excited. Please feel free to leave any comments on your draft thoughts in the comments section. This could include anybody I have missed, or anybody you think the Chiefs should be looking into. See you in April.
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