I say this with an unblemished record of staunch KU Basketball fandom for my entire life; however, I am starting to wonder about how Bill Self is handling Josh Selby and how it may affect KU this year and in the future. Now before all KU fans get up in arms about this keep in mind I think Bill Self is the hands down best in-season and in-game coach in the entire country. His ability to coach up his players and make in-game adjustments is second to none and there is no better coach for KU than Self. That being said, I do have something that I have been thinking about lately.
What if Bill Self is hampering the growth of Josh Selby by the way he coaches? Does Bill Self's coaching/rotation style protect freshmen too much? Before you go off on me, I know the arguments "Self has coached so many NBA players," "Xavier Henry went as a lottery pick," "Selby played amazing in his first two games as a Jayhawk," and finally "Selby has barely played half a season, he's still a little rusty." I get it, I recognize that not every hypothesis is bullet-proof, but I think if I am heard out than it might become a little more apparent why I am posing these questions.
Let's start with a comparison here. Let's compare Bill Self to John Calipari. Calipari has specialized in getting the most out of his elite freshmen. Derrick Rose nearly led him to a championship, Tyreke Evans was an absolute beast, John Wall took him to the brink of another final four, and Terrance Jones is exploding more than people thought he would in college.
How does Calipari get so much out of his freshmen? A large part of it is the offense that Calipari runs. He runs a motion iso offense that allows his players to get many opportunities to go one on one and score a lot of points. There isn't so much a set offense he runs as basic principles of the offense that allow his players to do what they need to on the court. It is not only the offense that makes Calipari's players so good, it is also how the coach handles his own players. Calipari doesn't shy away from letting his freshmen go out there and take control. In 2008 Calipari didn't care about Derrick Rose going out there and taking a leadership role on his Memphis team. Chris Douglass-Roberts was the seasoned veteran (a junior) and people thought he would be the true leader, and off the court maybe he was, but on the court Rose led that team. Now, I know Rose was a special talent, but still it was definitely a bold move to give that kind of control over to a freshman. Calipari pulled the same thing with John Wall last year. Reigning scoring leader and senior Patrick Patterson, by all accounts, should have been the leader, yet John Wall was handed the keys to Calipari's team as if it was his 16th b-day.
Calipari throws his freshmen out there, doesn't shy away from letting them be leaders, and goes even further to demand that they mature and find ways to be those leaders. They make mistakes, they still perform like freshmen at times, but he allows them to do that and by virtue of his trust they become what he needs them to become. The results speak for themselves in the last three years with a National Championship game appearance, a sweet 16 appearance, and an elite 8 appearance, respectively. Now, I would much rather trade the National Championship victory by Bill Self and the Jayhawks in 2008 over the last 3 years Calipari had; however, stay with me a little longer. Calipari's results are only as impressive as they are because he was able to do it with freshmen being such a big part of his lineup's.
Bill Self doesn't treat his freshmen like Calipari does. Self protects his freshmen. As a head coach Self has a much more defined system than Calipari and a greater set of plays that he runs out of the offense. Calipari runs a more AAU style of basketball, and Self runs a more college style, which is one of reasons that Self has had more success over the past decade than Calipari has (although they are razor close to each other). Self demands his players think, perform, and act in a certain way that fits into his system. He doesn't allow his players the freedom that Calipari does.
Not only does Self not allow his players the freedom, but he protects players like Selby from themselves. Overall, it is good that Selby is, more or less, not allowed to fail in big situations. Self likes to have people like Brady Morningstar in there who have experience in and understand his system so that he doesn't make the big mistakes when the game is on the line. It is my contention that if you don't allow your supposed big time players have the chance to make mistakes, then they won't be able to make the big play when it matters. Take last year for example, Self protected Henry as much as he could by rationing his minutes, taking him out when he was making some mistakes and putting him in a position to succeed and hid him from failure. When the season was on the line and The Jayhawks were down by 2 in the tournament to Northern Iowa, Henry went to the free throw line and missed the first of a 1-and-1 which would have changed the complexion of the game if he made it.
I feel that Selby is going down the same road this season. Selby came out gangbusters in his first game and dropped 21 points including hitting the game winning shot. But ask yourself this question, has Selby played that well since that game? The answer is no he has not. Obviously Selby will be a little rusty at this point, he hasn't even played in what amounts to half a season yet, but he has seemingly gotten worse in the games he has played instead of better. When I see Selby in close games since that first one he looks scared and timid. Selby didn't even play in the last 18 minutes of the Nebraska game, and it was because Bill Self didn't trust Selby to be in there and do what is best for the team.
I understand from a team/coaching perspective why this decision is made; however, I don't agree with it. Would the Allen Fieldhouse win streak being snapped by Nebraska really suck? Absolutely. Would it be worth it if Selby was in there taking his lumps so he could learn, get the experience, and be ready when we really need him come tournament time? You better believe it. Selby is a timid player right now and he didn't become the #1 high school recruit in the country by being timid. His killer instinct that allowed him to make that great shot against USC has dwindled and that will be something that will be needed and depended on come March.
I cannot speak to whether or not it is the offense or Self's rotational coaching style but I think it definitely has to do with how Self chooses to handle everything. Calipari puts his freshmen in a position where they have the freedom to take over a game if they want and are feeling it, while Self demands they stay within the confines of his offense.
Adding credence to what I am saying is a recent article on ESPN.com by Daivd Thorpe entitled What's Wrong with Josh Selby (read the article here). However, my worry doesn't end with Selby. Despite the impact this will have one this season, what are the implications for the future. Take UCLA for example, Ben Howland came to the Bruins earlier this decade when the program was hurting after the Steve Lavin era and rose them back to prominence with a bevy of NBA caliber players and 3 straight Final Fours. But where are they now? Didn't even make the tournament last year and have started 13-7 this year. The team is looking like it's not where it needs to be and it will be a couple years before they can get back. What went wrong?
In the article they speak to how talented players at UCLA like Darren Collison and Russell Westbrook couldn't use their skills to their fullest potential due to Ben Howland's slow paced offense. Howland pulled the reins hard on his players and never let them "get loose" as someone like Calipari did with Tyreke Evans. This in and of itself is not a bad thing, it's good coaching and it is what's best for the team. However, UCLA has not been able to pull down the recruits in recent years like they did earlier in the decade and have even seen some dissent with some of their high profile players transferring.
I don't think KU will slip the way UCLA has, but I do have to wonder about recruiting in the future. Bill Self has shown time and time again that he can recruit with the best of them. While he generally strikes out with the top 5-7 recruits (Josh Selby being the exception) he makes his money with the 12-30 ranked recruits. This is prime territory because they have a chip on their shoulders cause they weren't ranked as high, which means they are more apt to listen to coaching and play in the system. This is a good thing and the 2008 National Championship team shows you it can be done with these players.
The concern I fear is that with the change in mentality in recruits and the style of AAU play that it will hurt KU recruiting. Most young players high on the recruiting list these days come from a different world than they did even 5-10 years ago. The AAU world and the world of the young basketball recruit is a completely different ballgame now.
College basketball is not about Final Fours and championships anymore. It's not about the glory and stories you can tell your kids and grandkids when they go there, College Basketball is about money. Once the one-and-done rule was established it brought the mercenary college basketball star to the forefront. Look at OJ Mayo, Gred Oden, Kevin Durant, Michael Beasley, Derrick Rose, players like that, do you think those players would have gone to those schools 10-15 years ago? One or two of them maybe, but you would not have seen the likes of OJ Mayo at USC or Kevin Durant at Texas, it's just that simple. Players now don't want to be surrounded by other good players and try to win championships, players want to go where they are the star and they will get the most notice. This in turn leads to dollar bills in their pocket when they go to the NBA. At least, that is what most of them are (probably) told by the people close to them.
This is not just the top 3-5 recruits anymore either. This attitude permeates itself through the top 100 recruits. Before the one-and-done rule was established in 2004 players decided if they wanted to jump straight from high school to the pros and if they didn't then they went to college until they were ready whether that was one, two, three, or four years. Now, it is the desire of every recruit that cracks that top 100 list to be one-and-done and in the NBA by the time they're 19.
The implications this has on KU are great. Include me as one of the few people that were surprised Selby ended up committing to Kansas. It was not a shock because all signs pointed to him signing but the fact that he did was surprising. KU hasn't been getting Selby type guard recruits recently because the aforementioned change that has gone on over the last 5-7 years in college basketball recruiting. Selby may stay for another year (he really should) and when other recruits see that, they won't see someone who was overhyped needed another year, they will see a failed one-and-done from Kansas. Recruits will look and ask why Selby didn't make it to the league after one year, or even if he does why he won't go as high as originally thought, and they will start to wonder if KU is right the place for them.
Now, I do believe this is largely reserved for the guard recruits coming out of high school. If you are a big man playing forward or center then there is no better place to be than Kansas. KU has consistently churned out solid big men and their offense is designed around the big man. However, many of the top flight recruits these days are guards because that is how the game is moving on the AAU circuit. This presents a possible problem for KU in the future.
I want everyone to keep something in mind, I am still as big of a KU fan as you will find. My love for the Jayhawks is only surpassed by my love for the Chiefs. I have been with the Jayhawks through thick (2002, 2003, and 2008 Final Fours and 2008 National Championship) and thin (first round exits in 2004 and 2005 and second round defeat last year in 2010). This is not an attack on KU or Bill Self but from someone who still tries to remain objective about the path of their sports teams this could be an issue in KU's recruiting in the future. Now, if there is anyone that can handle this situation it is Bill Self. Self has shown himself to be an adaptable recruiter and coach and I have complete faith this will not be an issue. All the same, this is something that I have been thinking about for a while and something that needed to be thrown out there. Feel free to tell me how off base I am.
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