NFL Lockdown is Back!

 This weeks NFL Lockdown is brought to you in honor of the amazing Aly Michalka:

So it’s been almost a year since I have had an NFL Lockdown post but I am going to bring it back.  With my increased reading of Grantland.com I am becoming more and more fascinated by the sports betting world.  I don’t ever have the urge to bet actual money, but I’m fascinated by betting lines, how they are determined, and the entire process in general.

Last season, I picked my top 5 games and gave my breakdown, but this year I’m going to go through all 16 games and pick my winners.  Keep in mind that I am horrible at this so please, if you do choose to bet, don’t place any faith in this for me, it is for entertainment purposes only.  Here are my picks for Week 4 of the NFL season:

Detroit (+1.5) @ Dallas (-1.5) – Take Detroit in this.  I would expect Detroit to be the favorite in this game with the way Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson are playing, and the fact that they aren’t makes this a pretty good bet for Detroit.

New Orleans (-7) @ Jacksonville (+7) – New Orleans.  The Jags can’t possibly keep up with the high powered offense of the Saints and this should be an easy one.

San Francisco (+9) @ Philadelphia (-9) – San Francisco.  At the beginning of the season you would probably wouldn’t have taken this, but with the Eagles 1-2, the 49ers 2-1 and the Eagles having all the problems they have had offensively with a shaky Michael Vick, this looks to be a closer matchup then you would have originally thought.

Washington (-2) @ St. Louis (+2) – Washington.  The Redskins have been playing better than expected and the Rams just don’t have the talent right now.  I think it will be close but I see the Redskins taking this one late.

Tennessee (+1) @ Cleveland (-1) – Cleveland.  I think Cleveland is for real this year, at least a real as the Chiefs were last year, for what that’s worth.

Buffalo (-3) @ Cincinnati (+3) – Buffalo.  The Bills offense is legit, they’re getting great QB play from Fitzpatrick and their defense is formidable.  I thought before the season that the Bills could go 8-8, and still think so, and that might be their floor.

Minnesota (-2) @ Kansas City (+2) – Minnestoa.  The Vikings have one thing playing in their favor, they are outscoring their opponents 54-7 in the first half.  This bodes well for them in that if they are able to get a lead against the Chiefs early on, the Chiefs are not built to come from behind like the other teams they have played.

Carolina (+6.5) @ Chicago (-6.5) – Carolina.  I don’t think the Panthers are going to win, but they have shown they can compete and will be able to stick with the Bears.

Pittsburgh (+3.5) @ Houston (-3.5) – Pittsburgh.  The Steelers being underdogs to the Texans is crazy enough, let’s stop there and say that is the defending AFC champs do lose, it won’t be by more than 3 points.

Atlanta (-4.5) @ Seattle (+4.5) – Atlanta.  Seattle is awful.

New York Giants (-1) @ Arizona (+1) – New York.  The Giants have too much on defense for the Cardinals to hang with them.

Miami (+7) @ San Diego (-7) – Miami.  This feels like one of those early season faux pas that the Chargers always seem to have that precludes them from getting off to the start they need.  The always lay an egg, and if it’s not here, this one will at least be close.

Denver (+12) @ Green Bay (-12) – Green Bay.  I might pick the Pack against any team with this spread.  Their offense is simply too good.

New England (-4) @ Oakland (+4) – Oakland.  I’m calling for the Oakland upset here in the Coliseum.  Cue the people saying ‘what’s wrong with the Patriots D?’ after two losses to Buffalo and Oakland.

New York Jets (+3) @ Baltimore (-3) – Baltimore.  The Ravens looked like the class of the league after dismantling Pittsburgh, but after a loss to Tennessee they are back down to earth.  That said, the Jets are underachievers so far and in Baltimore I think the Ravens take this by more than 3.

Indianapolis (+10) @ Tampa Bay (-10) – Indianapolis.  Tampa Bay loves to come out slow and then storm back for the win, no problem when it comes to records but when it comes to beating the spread it makes the Bucs tough to bet on.  Steer clear of this, it feel like a sucker bet to me.