The Chiefs Need to Re-Sign Dwayne Bowe

kansascity.com

Dwayne Bowe is currently in what people in the business call his “contract year.”  This is exactly as it sounds, the last year of his contract.  Before Dwayne Bowe plays next season one of three things will occur: he will sign a new long-term contract with the Kansas City Chiefs, he will sign a new long-term contract with another team having tested the waters of free agency, or he will be playing under a one year contract as a result of the ‘franchise tag’ the Chiefs will have placed on him, paying him the average of the top 5 highest paid players at the position.

Knowing those are the only 3 possibilities, the Chiefs need to make sure it never gets that far and the only possibility is that he’s playing here in KC under a long-term contract, just like Jamaal Charles, Derrick Johnson, Tamba Hali, and Brandon Flowers.  Dwayne Bowe has seen the worst of this franchise, has persevered, and should be there to see the best when it arrives.

I can be somewhat of a stat geek at times, and while football doesn’t lend itself to statistical analysis as much as baseball does, they do tell a tale.  The main difference is that there are no stats in football that are meant to be predictive.  Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus have tried to create such stats but nothing has really caught on with more than the true stat geek devotee.  Football stats are an indicator of past success and by looking at stat progression, age of the player, and what you see with your eyes you can make the determination of what that player is worth.

Looking at the stats Bowe has shown himself to be worth the long-term contract.  Most people say that Bowe is not an elite receiver and that may be true, but he ranks near the top 10 if not within it the way he has played over the last 20 games or so.  Looking even deeper, Bowe has shown the skills of a top flight receiver nearly every year of his career, despite his inconsistencies. 

For Chiefs fans, Bowe will forever be compared to Calvin Johnson as Bowe was the next receiver taken in the 2007 draft after Johnson, and while Johnson gets all the credit, Bowe has stuck right there with him statistically.  People will say that Johnson hasn’t had anybody throwing to him, has been on some bad teams, and that is why his stats are lower.  However, Bowe has had all the same issues in his tenure here in KC.

Now, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to tell you that Calvin Johnson is a better player.  He’s bigger, stronger, faster than Bowe, he has better hands and can jump higher.  All of these things tell you that he passes the eye test of being better than Bowe if not the best receiver in the game.  Following that physical criteria you can make the argument that the top 3 receivers in the league are Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald.  While I suppose some could probably debate on that, that’s pretty much the consensus as I would imagine.

With that, let’s compare their first four years per game averages and average seasons statistically with Dwayne Bowe’s per game/average season stats (and just for fun I threw in the top two receivers from last year and their first four season averages):

Player	Rec/G	Yds/G	TD/G	Rec/Yr	Yds/Yr	TD/Yr
Dwayne Bowe	4.7	63.9	0.53	75.2	1022.4	8.48
Calvin Johnson	4.5	69.9	0.55	72	1118.4	8.8
Andre Johnson	5.7	68.6	0.36	91.2	1097.6	5.76
Larry Fitzgerald	5.6	78.6	0.6	89.6	1257.6	9.6
Roddy White	3.9	58.6	0.3	62.4	937.6	4.8
Reggie Wayne	3.9	54.1	0.4	62.4	865.6	6.4

What we see here is that when matched up to these receivers, whom all would most likely consider elite, Bowe can hold his own.  This is not an end all be all as we all know that there are plays the other receivers make above on a consistent basis that Bowe does not make.  Bowe has games in which he will disappear and he can be contained in a way the other receivers above can’t.  We also know that if you were to break this down to each game most of Bowe’s stats would probably come against lesser offenses and lesser pass defenses even more so.  That said, the other receivers beat up on lesser defenses as well, and even if they can make the plays Bowe can’t, looking at the stats you would hardly be able to tell.

The Chiefs have been searching for a franchise wide receiver ever since the days of Otis Taylor, who is the team’s leading receiver that actually played wide receiver (Tony Gonzalez leads the Chiefs in all receiving statistical categories).  We don’t need to go through the list of spectacular players the Chiefs have drafted over the years.  For every Carlos Carson and Stephone Page, there is a Snoop Minnis and Sylverster Morris.  The Jeff Webb’s and Sammie Parker’s of the world have not worked out and there wasn’t much faith that Bowe would reverse that trend.

However, he did.  Bowe has had two 1,000 yard seasons (almost 3 as he had 995 yards his rookie year) and was a pro-bowler last year.  The biggest issue to this point has been his inconsistency.  According to ProFootballFocus.com Bowe ranks in the bottom 10 of drop percentages from 2008-2010.  According to PFF’s stats, Bowe has 33 drops in that time versus the 238 balls that were deemed catchable (for a 13.87% drop percentage).  In comparison, Larry Fitzgerald has led the league in that category with only 11 drops on what has been deemed 336 catchable balls (for a percentage of 3.27%).  The other receivers in the table above rank somewhere in between the two and are not in the top ten or the bottom ten of the league.

Drop stats are contentious and this is where the ‘catchable ball’ designation comes in to play.  Unfortunately, this seems to be where Bowe’s biggest issue has been.  He makes the spectacular catch (see: last week against Indy) but then can’t make the simple one right on his hands when we need it.  That has been his MO ever since coming in to the league.  Through the first four games last year it appeared to be the case once again culminating with a dropped touchdown pass against the Colts that, while not easy, was catchable.  That reception could have won the game for the Chiefs last year, instead the game was lost and it nearly came back to bite the Chiefs later in the season.

However, after that game it seemed like Bowe turned the corner.  He then went on one of the most historical receiving runs in recent memory.  That seemed to be the turning point in his career to this juncture and so far this season he has been able to keep that momentum going.  It deserves notice that he did not rank in the bottom 10 of the league in drop percentage last year and while he’s already had a few drops this year, he’s making up for it by making more plays and more athletic catches.

One of the factors I mentioned above in determining value is age.  Bowe just recently turned 27 in September so he fits the bill of a ‘young’ player.  Receivers usually operate in their prime into their low to mid 30’s depending on the player.  Usually around 33 they start to break down and then after that they can still have another 2-3 years of success if they concentrate on different skills.  Bowe can be that player. 

If the Chiefs lock him up for the next 5 years he will be 32 when the contract is up and the best years of his prime would have been spent with this team.  Not to mention, as the team gets better and the offense gets better Bowe will only continue to improve.  We’ve seen Bowe’s ceiling but his consistency and confidence will improve as he gets older and smarter and will be what takes him to the elite level.  With Steve Breaston emerging the last two games, and Jon Baldwin still a possibility to add a dynamic to this team, Bowe only stands to benefit.

The Chiefs have played the chicken game with a wide receiver before by the name of Joe Horn.  Horn played 4 years for the Chiefs as a 5^th round pick never catching more than 35 balls and 6 TDs, then went on to New Orleans where he averaged 87 catches, 1,257 yards, and 9 TDs over the next 5 years.  That was his average on the Saints.  He was a multiple pro bowler and all-pro and deservedly so.  The Chiefs had the talent, let him go and regretted it, they do not want to be in the same position here.

If the Chiefs are going to win a Super Bowl, Dwayne Bowe will be a major part of it.  He still has some things to work on but has shown and continues to show that this offense is better because of him.  Bowe has the skills necessary and if he is able to overcome some of his inconsistencies he will reach that level of elite wide receiver.  It’s up to the Chiefs whether he reaches that level in Kansas City or somewhere, and I for one would hate to see that happen somewhere else.