The Melk-man Goeth

You know it’s gonna be a legit post when I have not one but two hyphenated play on words in the title.  Oh yeah, that’s right Royals fans our GM made a move we can all be proud of.  Technically, he made two moves that should make us proud.  The signing of Melky Cabrera in December of 2010 was universally panned.  Even as low risk as it was, nearly everybody saw no value in bringing in a traditionally overweight, underachieving center fielder, who isn’t really a center fielder.  Not to mention, no more than 10 days later the Royals acquired a bright young center field talent through the Zack Greinke trade in Lorenzo Cain.

Eventually Melky won the starting job, Cain was relegated to AAA and the season began.  What happened was a career year for Cabrera.  The Melk-man put up a line of (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS) .305/.339/.470/.809 with 18 HRs and 87 RBIs.  This was a career year for Cabrera and makes him look like a borderline all-star.  He didn’t walk much, but his strike rate wasn’t outlandish either, he made a lot of contact and got a lot of hits.  Having a .332 BABIP showed that it wasn’t as much luck as you would think.  It’s not unheard of for a good hitter to pull off that kind of BABIP for an extended period of time.  However, someone like Cabrera gives you doubts in that department.  All in all, Cabrera was near the top of the team while accumulating a 4.2 WAR.

This proved to be a valuable signing.  By all accounts Melky was a positive influence in the clubhouse and he was a positive influence on the field.  He is not a “true” center fielder, he lacks the range and athleticism the position requires, but he did an adequate job.  He didn’t make a lot of plays but there weren’t many plays he didn’t make either (that he should have).  He legitimately was worth the solid WAR he put up for the 2011 season.

That value led to other teams inquiring about Melky for help in their outfields.  One of the teams was the San Francisco Giants.  Who knows who initiated the trade but the Giants got Melky to bolster center field and the Royals got Jonathan Sanchez and Ryan Verdugo (both LHPs). 

Sanchez is an immediate upgrade of the Royals pitching staff.  That said, the Giants were buying low on Sanchez.  He was a legitimate reason for the Giants World Series championship in 2010.  That season he had a 3.07 ERA, a 3.94 xFip (with a 4.00 FIP) so his ERA mark was a pretty accurate portrayal of how he was actually pitching.  He also managed to strike out a nasty 9.54 batters per nine innings.  This immediately makes Sanchez the best strikeout pitcher the Royals have had since Greinke (assuming the light doesn’t come on for Danny Duffy or Mike Montgomery this year). 

The Giants are buying low on him because of his 2011 season.  His most recent season saw his ERA jump to 4.26 with a 4.36 xFIP (and 4.30 FIP).  Again, his ERA showed a pretty accurate portrayal.  His strike rate stayed pretty consistent with a 9.06/9 rate, but then it gets ugly.  He had a career high walk rate of 5.86/9.  This is awful even by Royals standards.

This is the crux of why the Royals were able to get Sanchez at such a “low” price.  He has had walk issues his entire career.  He averages allowing 4.78 BB/9 on his career.  Now, his K rate is up there at 9.36/9 for his career, but that can only help you so much.  Nobody wants to be in the business of giving free bases.

There is also another factor at play here.  Since Sanchez and Cabrera don’t play the same position, they are not equitable.  We know Lorenzo Cain is now the owner of center field, but who will Sanchez boot out of the rotation?  My guess is that Jeff Francis is out.  This means that we have to hope that the combination of Lorenzo Cain and Jonathan Sanchez is better than Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francis.

First, let’s take a look at what Francis and Cabrera gave us last year.  A cursory glance at Francis’ stats makes him look like a poor pitcher.  He compiled a 6-16 record with a 4.82 ERA.  However, a deeper look will tell he wasn’t as bad as his stats showed.  His xFIP was only 4.29 and his BABIP was .316, slightly above his career average.  He had a ridiculously low 8.5% HR/FB ratio, which was no doubt helped by the pitcher friendly confines of Kauffman stadium.  He also had a solid 47.1% ground ball rate.  All factors that contributed to his 2.6 WAR, despite his ugly W-L and ERA numbers.

With Cabrera’s previously mentioned 4.2 WAR that means the two players combined had a total WAR of 6.8.  That is what will need to be replaced on this team.  Despite what it looks like on the surface, these two players were very valuable to the 2011 Royals.

Let’s look at best case scenario.  In Sanchez’ best year (2010) he had a WAR of 2.4 to go with his 13-9 record and 3.07 ERA (shows you how valuable those stats really are when they were that much better than Francis in 2011 and his WAR was lower).  If Cain is the player he was at AAA last year, he will probably net somewhere in the 3.0 WAR range.  If that scenario plays out we have replaced a 6.8 WAR with roughly 5.4 WAR.  Seems like a bad deal, but there’s more at play here.

First of all, we’re comparing supposed WAR with WAR from last year.  That doesn’t quite equate.  Let’s look at this realistically and see what we could expect from Cabrera and Francis in 2012 if they were a part of the team. 

Looking forward, I don’t know that we could expect a 4.2 WAR again from a player who had a Career WAR of 2.5 going in to this past season.  Let’s assume that Cabrera is 85% of what he was last year.  That would put him at .260/.288/.400/.688 with 15 HRs and 74 RBIs.  This would put the 3.0-3.5 WAR in play.  I don’t believe it to be a stretch to say that Cain can duplicate, and possibly even improve on those stats next year.

We’re going to do the same exercise with Francis.  AT 85% of what he was last year we’re looking at 5.67 ERA on 155 innings pitched with roughly the same record.  I believe it’s safe to say that he would have a WAR closer to the 1.5-2.0 range.  Sanchez can do no worse than that with his talent.

Let’s say that Cabrera gives a 3.0 WAR and Francis gives a 1.8 WAR, just to be conservative.  That puts us at a 4.8 WAR.  Is it a stretch to say that Cain could provide a 2.8 WAR and Sanchez a 2.0?  I think both of those numbers are easily achievable.  This turns the trade into a wash ultimately.  So why make the deal?

Well, we’re giving up one year of control on Melky, who was not going to sign again with the Royals, for one year of control of Sanchez.  We also got a minor leaguer in Ryan Verdugo whom we control for 6 years once he reaches the majors.  We also have control over Cain for 6 years.  This makes the trade have much more value to the Royals.

Outside the statistical analysis of the trade, I like it a lot.  Still.  Sanchez may be a slight head case, but he has top level talent.  He has thrown a no-hitter before.  That type of “stuff” doesn’t grow on trees.  He has his faults, such as less than ideal ground ball rate, but he has a decent HR/FB rate which should only improve in the confines of Kauffman.  Cain is a more than adequate upgrade for Melky defensively and should be able to hold his own at the plate.

This is probably Dayton Moore’s best trade yet as Royals GM.  He sold high and bought low at the same time.  Maybe you can call the trades equal but you can’t say the Royals got screwed.  Everyone knows what the Royals problem is, and Moore went and did something about it.  He got a high upside guy who could factor into the Royals future, or at least be a decent one year rental.  He put another one of our young players in the starting lineup.  There is not much to dislike about this trade.  That said, I certainly hope Moore is not done because Sanchez does not make the Royals a contender all by himself.