NFL - Elite Quarterbacks

What makes an NFL QB "Elite"?

A question was posed recently to The Jeff Report of what makes an elite QB in the NFL? The question stemmed from a recent preseason game pitting the Indianapolis Colts against the Green Bay Packers. Everyone knows Peyton Manning has been an NFL elite QB since he was studying game film in the womb. That is no surprise. Now, the chic thing to do has been to gush about Aaron Rodgers and talk about how he is an elite QB in the league now (let's not talk about how The Jeff Report made this statement a year ago, well before it was the "in" thing to do).  During the broadcast Jon Gruden said he thought Rodgers was an elite QB, while Ron Jaworski did not agree. Jaws said he was close, but not there yet, and pointed to playoff success as one of the reasons why he is “not there yet.” With this as my inspiration I have decided to dive into what exactly makes an elite quarterback in the NFL (bear in mind that this is the opinion of The Jeff Report, it is a very well informed opinion, but opinion nonetheless).

First, let’s go over the size requirements. I think size is slightly overvalued in the NFL as far as evaluating QB’s is concerned. If you asked any scout the ideal size for a QB is going to be 6’3” 230lbs. This allows for size to see over the increasingly taller offensive linemen, take some hits and be durable, while still allowing the appropriate mobility and footwork that is necessary for the position. Durability is a must, but one must not conform to the rigid size requirements to prove durability or to prove viability as an NFL QB. Footwork is more important in the NFL than it is in college because with the increased speed of defenders and their better ability to read QB’s and passes it is important to make sure one is properly set to make a strong, accurate pass. Footwork can be taught and is not exclusive to the taller set. Drew Brees at 5’10” can put good zip on the ball with great precision in large part due to his footwork. QB’s like Vince Young get in trouble with lackluster footwork relying too much on their God-given arm strength. Improper footwork can mean weaker passers to the majority of the field (especially when throwing across one’s body) and effectively means the QB can only throw adequately to one quarter of the field, which the defense keys on and makes the QB’s life difficult. This illustrates why size is something that is desired, but overvalued. Good mechanics, smarts, and toughness make up for a lack of size.

Another area that I feel is overrated is arm strength. Arm strength is more important in the NFL because routes are longer and opposing defenders are faster. It is necessary to spot the window and get the ball into that window quickly. Windows are smaller in the NFL and remain open for shorter periods of time as defenders have much more closing speed than those in college. That being said, the ability to throw the ball 40 or 50+ yards is overrated. Kyle Boller can throw the ball through the uprights from 50 yard line from his knees, Jamarcus Russell could put a football into orbit but neither has had NFL success to date, the NFL is full of players who can chuck it but don’t succeed. This is because scouts put too much emphasis on the ability to chuck the football over other necessary traits to be successful. This results in too many throwers and not enough passers.

Now, there is a certain threshold of arm strength that an elite NFL QB should not go below. If Aaron Rodgers/Peyton Manning have the high end of the spectrum of elite arm strength, I would put Drew Brees at the lowest acceptable range of elite arm strength. Brees can make all the necessary throws of an elite QB with the adequate amount of zip necessary. The difference between Drew Brees and Peyton Manning? Manning can make the 40+yard throw on a dime while Brees struggles a little bit in that department. Again, not a necessity but for the purposes of this analysis that is what separates the two. As I have talked about in other posts, the real bread and butter of an elite QB is the 15-25 yard range. All QB’s that would be considered “elite” can make the 15-25 yard throw at 60%+ accuracy. The prototypical elite QB can make this throw all day long, to any side of the field and with enough zip to counteract the ever increasing speed of linebackers and defensive backs in the NFL.

Watch an NFL game and you will see a QB make a throw in the air over 25 yards only 5-10 times per game. While big game changing plays can happen in this area, just as games are won and lost “in the trenches,” a game is won, from an “elite” QB perspective, this the 15-25 yard sweet spot. This range allows the wide receiver to get good separation and create room for after the catch, while still allowing for the QB to get back and release the ball quickly without holding the O-Line at bay by holding the ball too long. This requires no more than the requisite “3 seconds” that you ask your line to protect for, sometimes even less. Watching elite QB’s like Manning and Rodgers you see them exploit defenses in this area of the field all game long. This allows your offense to move the ball in chunks and not have to deal with as many 2nd and 3rd and longs.

Possibly the most important and underrated aspect of the NFL QB is accuracy. Accuracy is underrated? In my estimation it is. On a hypothetical 1-10 scale with 10 being the best, if you took a QB with 10 arm strength and 5 (average) accuracy versus a player with 7 (above average) arm strength and 10 accuracy the first QB would get drafted higher. NFL scouts love arm strength b/c they know they importance of it at this level. However, they forget to realize the importance accuracy plays in the arm strength arena (ex. Jamarcus Russell). Chad Pennington possibly had the weakest arm I have ever seen and he started for many years in the NFL, took his team to the playoffs a few times and won some playoff games. Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer both won Super Bowls by being accurate game managers as opposed to the flashy down the field throwers. Rick Mirer, Jamarcus Russell, Kyle Boller, Akili Smith, all these QB’s had really strong arms but couldn’t pair it with the accuracy and never took their teams to the playoffs or won a playoff game let alone a Super Bowl. This proves that accuracy is more important and makes it easier to be a successful QB. If you are going to win a Super Bowl without an elite QB (which rarely happens) it is easier to do so with an accurate QB with a weak arm than the opposite. History has proven as much.

Finally, almost as important as accuracy, is good decision making. This should go without saying but often times NFL scouts seem to be fooled into the idea that good decision is easier to teach than it actually is, or they are fooled into believing someone makes good decisions even though they don’t. What makes this difficult to evaluate is the advent of the spread offense in college. Spread offenses are set up for QB success. QB’s like Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, Graham Harrell, etc. have all ridden the spread to much success. The spread offense in college is designed to create open spaces in an opponent’s defense. The wide receivers line up extremely wide and the offensive linemen line up in wide splits to try to capitalize on speed and open up the D. Once the ball is snapped each play is designed so the QB only has to make one read and throw the ball. Most spread offenses run the shotgun and do not require the QB to throw long so footwork becomes suspect. But I’m getting off on a tangent here on how the spread offense makes it hard to evaluate QB’s. The point here is that spread offenses make it too easy on QB’s who can exploit opposing teams inferior athletes and don’t have to go through their progressions, their decisions are pretty much made for them.


People will also bring up success in the regular season and playoffs as a factor of an elite QB. I don’t buy this. While there is a certain level you would think an elite QB would perform at to get his job done, football is the ultimate team sport and, although you can put a lot on the QB, you can’t put it all on his shoulders. Is there anybody on the planet would WOULDN’T take Dan Marino in his prime? Marino only went to one Super Bowl, never won one and had moderate playoff success. Not his fault. Fran Tarkenton went to a few Super Bowls but never won one. Not his fault. Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl, so did Brad Johnson, Ben Roethlisberger won two are these players elite QB’s? No. Roethlisberger is a very good QB but not elite in my opinion and that is because of my final factor of QB elite-ness: ability to win games on your own.

This may seem counter to what I mentioned earlier about football being the ultimate team game. I see the point but let me explain. While football is the ultimate team game, one player can transcend that and make enough difference to represent wins for a team that wouldn’t be there if he was gone. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and now Aaron Rodgers each represent 3-5 wins for their team that they just wouldn’t win without them. Could you put Jason Campbell on the Steelers and achieve roughly the same results? I think you could. Tom Brady even gets pulled into question here because Matt Cassel came in and won 11 games but has not been nearly as good with the Chiefs. It will be interesting to see how the Steelers roll with Byron Leftwich or Dennis Dixon.

When it really comes down to it, the most important quality is the last one, can you win multiple games for your team every year? If you can win 4-5 games every year, you’re an elite QB, which is the difference between “elite” and “very good.” Someone like Roethlisberger or Joe Flacco or Matt Ryan only represent 1-2 wins (at this point in their careers) which is not enough of an impact to be an “elite” QB.

Stay tuned for my follow up to this post about how Matt Cassel for the Chiefs fits into this mold…