An interesting idea was proposed to me recently (via @grogg
on twitter): how does the front end of the projected Royals 2012 rotation, compare
with the playoff teams front end starters from 2011? Well, there is a lot that goes in to this
question.
First, it will have to be determined who the front end
starters for the Royals are. That, in
and of itself, is pretty much the issue, but I digress. Right now, most will agree that the locks for
the rotation are Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, and Bruce Chen. Felipe Paulino and Danny Duffy are the
leaders in the clubhouse for the other two spots but Mike Montgomery, Aaron
Crow, and possibly Everett Teaford and Luis Mendoza will also factor in. If Montgomery or Crow show they’re ready for
the rotation the Royals will not hesitate to move Duffy or Paulino to the pen
or down to the minors.
That said, I think the front end of the rotation has
Hochevar and Sanchez and locks and that 3rd front end spot will
probably go to Chen but if Paulino pitches as he did last year it’s possible he
could snatch up that spot. In order to
move forward with this exercise we will have to determine who gets that #3 slot.
In 2011, Bruce Chen had, by all accounts, a pretty good
year. With a 3.77 ERA, and a 12-8 record
Chen was the best pitcher on staff, statistically. That is assuming you are just looking at the
“surface level” stats. While I don’t
ever purport to be a SABRMetrics expert or a snob, at this point I think we can
all agree that peripheral numbers are just as important as ERA. Looking at those, the case for Chen begins to
dissipate.